Record: 4-5-1 (-0.4 units)
Lock: ECU +9.5 vs App State 1u to win 0.9u
Groundbreaking Analysis:
Attempting a new strategy this week. Sprinkling on a lot of games. This one is a positional matchup for me. App State is coming off another thrilling games against UNC and again lost in a shootout in OT for a second straight year. They have to be tired from that game and still disappointed they couldn’t get the W. That has to hurt. ECU hasn’t won a game this year and should show up against an average App State team. These teams are in the same state and to me are on the same level in the grand scheme of college football so they should have equal amount of talent on both sides. ECU are going to be the hungrier and more motivated of the two. This game has the feel of a one score game. Give me the points.
Unbiased Stats:
App State is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games
App State is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games played in Week 3
ECU is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on the road
Lock: UNC -7.5 vs Minnesota 1u to win 0.9u
Groundbreaking Analysis:
Completely different logic compared to the first game. UNC played terrible and let App State once again force them into OT. Now they rebound. Minnesota is a team and that is all I think of when I hear them on Saturday. They should be a better team than App State which means take them. Wrong. UNC already had their scare and they won’t have a scare in back to back weeks. They have a future first round pick in Maye and I trust Mack Brown. They can score and I do not think Minnesota will be able to keep up with UNC. The fact they were only able to put up 25 on Eastern Michigan and 13 on Nebraska I have no doubt UNC has the capability to outscore them. They should be able to win this game by a TD+.
Unbiased Stats:
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
UNC is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played in Week 3
UNC is 15-5 in their last 20 games at home
Lock: Virginia Tech +7 vs Rutgers 1u to win 0.9
Groundbreaking Analysis:
This is an interesting spot for me. If Wells starts which he shouldn’t because he is not good and is injured then I am not thrilled by this bet. But if Drones starts which all signs are pointing to him starting then I love it. Drones got first team work this week and he has a much more versatile skill set compared to Wells. I lost a lot of money on that VT/ODU game so I know what I am getting myself into with this VT team. I am getting a solid defense and a ground and pound offense especially with Drones who is a QB that can run. Rutgers is Rutgers. I don’t see them blowing out any power five team unless it’s Northwestern. VT is different. I expect a close game so give me these points. Simple as that.
Unbiased Stats:
Virginia Tech is 10-0 in their last 10 games against Rutgers
Virginia Tech is 5-0 in their last 5 games on the road against Rutgers
Rutgers is 3-8 in their last 11 games
Lock: Washington -16 vs Michigan State
Groundbreaking Analysis:
I love this one and that was even before the Tuck situation. Michigan State is a joke of a school. I mean how stupid is Tuck. Besides that though this team sucks. I watched that entire MSU/CMU game when I bet on them and I instantly regretted it. Kim is not good and there defense is so so at best. And now they probably won’t have any real game plan for this game. If you go to MSU do you even show up for this game? You know you are going to lose and you supporting a school which should have fired Tuck by now. Washington is good. Penix is good. I don’t think they will get tripped up by MSU’s D. I expect them to win by 3+ TD’s and 16.5 is way too low of a number.
Unbiased Stats:
Washington is 10-0 in their last 10 games played in Week 3
Washington is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
Michigan State is 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games against the PAC 12.
Lock: Nebraska -10.5 vs NIU 1u to win 0.9
Groundbreaking Analysis:
I still hold out hope for Nebraska’s season. They had 4th quarter heartbreak against Minnesota. They couldn’t stop turning the ball over against Colorado. But they were in both of those games. I don’t think they are terrible and both of those games were away from home. They are finally playing in front of their fans and I expect a packed Memorial Stadium welcoming Matt Rhule to Nebraska. They put on a show and they will win this game by 2+ TDs. They have more talent in every position compared to NIU. NIU barely beat BC and they lost to Southern Illinois. They are no match for this new Nebraska team under Matt Rhule.
Unbiased Stats:
NIU is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played in Week 3
NIU is 3-10 in their last 13 games
Nebraska is 5-1 in their last 6 games against the MAC
