Record 13-15-2 (-3.3u)
Playing a lot this week. Spreading around the units. This is working decently in college so trying it in the NFL. I like a lot on this board but it does feel like some crazy shit can happen so I am throwing in some props to try and stay safe. PLP.
Lock: Bijan Robinson O23.5 Receiving Yards 1u to win 0.9u
Groundbreaking Analysis:
I really love this one. Bijan is a playmaker. I mean look at his rushing and receiving stats just wow. He will make guy miss in this game whether it be a check down or a screen play. He is getting a lot of targets from Ridder. He get’s them when they are in the game and in the two minute drill so I love his options to hit this. I think he has a chance to hit this in one reception because he is that good. His receiving stats would be better too if his first two receptions weren’t for negative yards. That was his learning curve and now he knows exactly what to do. Ridder isn’t some prolific QB so he will get a lot of looks from the check downs. This line is way too low. I think he hits 30+. Please send PLP.
Unbiased Stats:
Has hit over 23.5 receiving yards in his entire NFL career
20% target share this season
8.2 yards per reception with 10 receptions on 11 targets
Detroit 26th worst passing defense is allowing 8.11 receiving yards per reception to RB’s this season
Lock: Jefferson O100.5 Receiving Yards 1u to win 0.9u
Groundbreaking Analysis:
100 yards is a lot but hear me out. The Chargers have been shit on defense this season. They have allowed the most yards and the most passing yards so far this season. Kirko is just going to be slinging this thing to Jefferson all game. They came out last game with a quick screen to Jefferson and they will only game plan for him more this game. He is also rested and should be firing on all cylinders this game. Chargers allowed 215yds to Hill and Jefferson is just as good. Feed Jefferson all game and we hit.
Unbiased Stats:
Jefferson O100.5 in 6/L10
Jefferson averages 12.6 YAR
Chargers have allowed the most receiving yards this season
Minnesota passes the ball 67% of the time
Lock: TEN/CLE U38.5 1u to win 0.9u
Groundbreaking Analysis:
The total is low for a reason. These teams play sound defensive football. Neither team has an offense. This is a one score down to the wire low scoring game. It just has to be. Love it.
Unbiased Stats:
Under in Tennessee’s 9/L11 against AFC teams
Under in Browns’ 4/L5 at home
Lock: Broncos +6.5 vs Dolphins 1u to win 0.9u
Groundbreaking Analysis:
This pick is betting the fishy line. The entire world is going to take the Dolphins spread and teasing them every which way. I am taking Denver. I think Payton throws everything he has in this game. Must win for Wilson to keep his job. I think this is the day everything gets fucked in the NFL. So it only makes sense to take the team that should have been double digit dogs. Waddle is out too so I think that makes this game closer. It is as simple as that.
Unbiased Stats:
Dolphins are 3-6 in their L9
Lock: Patriots -2.5 vs Jets 1u to win 0.9u
Groundbreaking Analysis:
The Patriots own the Jets. They have won the last 10 head to head so why not one more. This is a spot where I don’t fully love it but you just have to bet it. I do not see a side of the ball where the Jets fully outplay the Pats. Do I think Wilson/Salah can outplay Belichick? Fuck no. Belichick is fuming starting 0-2 and he is going to let it out on Wilson. Jets are starting to crumble on social media and that can’t help them. Give me the Mac revival game.
Unbiased Stats:
Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their L5 against Jets
Patriots are 7-0 in their L7 at Jets
Jets are 1-5 ATS in their L6
Lock: WAS/BUF O44.5 1u to win 0.9
Groundbreaking Analysis:
Both of these teams can score. I think this is a perfect matchup for a lot of turnovers and a lot of short field scores. There are playmakers on both sides of the ball. I think either team can score in garbage time if it gets to that point. Give me a lot of points in what I am expecting to be a very weird game.
Unbiased Stats:
Buffalo at Washington has gone over in 4/L5
Buffalo has gone over in 5/L7
Lock: Seahawks -5 vs Panthers 1u to win 0.9u
Groundbreaking Analysis:
Panthers short week. Seahawks settled down in Week 2. Backup coming in to play. Give me the hawks. They win this game by two scores. I am not the biggest fan of Dalton so that plays into this and I think Seattle will be prepared for him. As long as Geno can be average they should handle this Panther team fairly easy.
Unbiased Stats:
Panthers are 3-8 in their L11 against the Seahawks
Panther are 2-11 in their L13 on the road.
