Record: 34-27-3 (+3.5 units)
You have to sprinkle money everywhere with the Chiefs. I will never put any money against them. I have a problem so I have to have some sort of action on the game. My goal was to sprinkle more across the board in hopes I do not go bankrupt.
Lock: MVS O18.5 Receiving Yards 1u to win 0.9u
Groundbreaking Analysis:
This is my team. I sort of know my team. I say sort of because it is the Chiefs and it is Andy Reid so you never know what you are going to get. They have a mix of WR’s and outside of Kelce it is tough to find a true WR1. I still think MVS can be that guy. He can be that guy in the sense that this line is so fucking low. MVS is the of deep threat and security blanket Mahomes needs. He hasn’t been getting enough targets all season even though he is playing in most of the snaps. I think this is the game where the Chiefs game plan for him. And even if they don’t he will get 2/3 looks deep from Mahomes and he will just need to catch one of them. This line is way too low and that is why I love it.
Unbiased Stats:
Highest WR Snap Count
O18.5 in 3/3 against Denver
Averaging 49 receiving yards against Denver L3
Lock: McKinnon O14.5 Receiving Yards 1u to win 0.9u
Groundbreaking Analysis:
McKinnon is our true third down back. CEH has fluctuating snap counts and he hasn’t looked great this season which is no surprise. McKinnon will get all of the looks on check downs and has notoriously put up numbers against Denver. McKinnon just needs two check down or a solid screens to hit this. I love this play. McKinnon is our guy and I have not been betting on him in the past and that is a mistake. Every time I watch the Chiefs he is open and gets a couple good looks. Love this one.
Unbiased Stats:
O14.5 in 3/3 against Denver
O14.5 in 3/L4
Averaging 63.3 receiving yards against Denver L3
Lock: Wilson O0.5 INT + U50 0.5u to win 1.2u
Groundbreaking Analysis:
This is my plus money bet on the under. Wilson will throw an INT. The Chiefs are due for one. They only have one this season and they should get one in shit weather and against a shit QB. Wilson loves handing them out against this defense. I think McDuffie, Sneed, or Reid will snag one. I pushed up the under because I think with all that said this game is closer than people think and will stay relatively low scoring. If it doesn’t stay close then I think Denver stays below 10 and Chiefs stay below 40. Simple as that.
Unbiased Stats:
Wilson has throw 8 interceptions in L10
Wilson has thrown an INT in L2 against KC
Primetime Under
