Record: 39-29-3 (+6.3 units)
Fading the public for the most part this week. The public has been hot which means it is time to fade.
Lock: Fields O52.5 Rushing Yards 1u to win 0.9
Groundbreaking Analysis:
Fields is going to run all over this Vikings defense. The Vikings are in shambles. I expect the Bears to win this game however the public is on them so I went with Fields. The Bears are out of RB’s so Fields is going handle most of the rushing yards. Love this one. Go Fields Go.
Unbiased Stats:
Fields O52.5 in 1/L1
Fields O52.5 in 9/15 in 22/23
Lock: Saints -1.5 vs Texans 1u to win 0.9
Groundbreaking Analysis:
This play is simply going against everything I believe in. I like the Texans. I have mixed feeling on the Saints. But the public is on the Texans. This line makes no sense so I have to take the Saints. They are on the road and are favored against a pretty solid Texans squad. I have to take the Saints. This is hopefully a shit Stroud game where we all realize that he is still a rookie. He throws a couple picks and Carr settles in and throws a couple TD’s.
Unbiased Stats:
Texans are 1-8 in L9 at home
Texans are 0-10 in L10 against opponents in the NFC
Saints are 15-5 in L20 played in October
Saints are 4-1 ATS in L5 in Week 6
Lock: Commanders +2.5 vs Falcons 1u to win 0.9
Groundbreaking Analysis:
Fade, fade, fade the public. The Commanders and Rivera were born for this games. This game is going to be a dog fight with both teams trying to pound the rock. The Commanders find ways to win these sort of games. They are coming off almost a bye after playing TNF in which they got embarrassed by the Bears. Falcons scraped out a win last week and let’s face it they are a .500 team. They lose these games. Commanders redemption game. Simple.
Unbiased Stats:
Falcons are 2-4 ATS in L6 in October
Falcons are 1-4 ATS in L5
Commanders are 6-2 ATS in L8 on the road
Commanders are 4-1 ATS in L5 against Atlanta
Lock: Patriots +2.5 vs Raiders 1u to win 0.9u
Groundbreaking Analysis:
This is it for Belichick. He needs this game. He won’t be able to sleep if he loses to his old backup and offensive coordinator. He has to win. He will win. The Patriots are bad but they will win this game. This is it for Mac too and I expect him to show up.The Raiders are coming off of the MNF high and we can not forget they are the Raiders. Even after that win there is still a discussion about McDaniels being fired and let us not forget the rumors they were looking to trade Adams. Feed me a pissed off Bill in Vegas.
Unbiased Stats:
Raiders are 1-5 ATS in L6 against AFC opponents
Raiders are 1-6 in L7 in Week 6
Patriots are 6-1 in L7 against the Raiders
Patriots are 9-4 in L13 against opponents in the AFC West
Lock: Devonta Smith O55.5 Receiving Yards 1u to win 0.9u
Groundbreaking Analysis:
l love Smith here. He did not have a great game last week. He was upset about last week. They feed him the ball this week. This happens time after time with talented WR’s and the teams feed them the ball the following week. He easily gets this number. I am expecting a big day from the slim reaper.
Unbiased Stats:
Smith O55.5 in 2/L4
Smith O55.5 in 12/20 in 22/23
