Record: 49-40-3 (+4.3 units)
Lock: Cowboys -6 vs Rams 1u to win 0.9
Groundbreaking Analysis:
The Cowboys win this easy. At home. Rams are shit. McVay had a kid during the week so they shouldn’t be as prepared. They choked that Steelers game last week. Cowboys are coming off the bye. They have enough rest to win this game by double digits. Easy.
Unbiased Stats:
LA is 1-4 ATS in L5 on the road against Dallas
LA is 2-8 in L10 on the road
Dallas is 10-0 in L10 at home
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in L6
Lock: Panthers +3.5 vs Texans 1u to win 0.9
Groundbreaking Analysis:
Dog. Home Dog. I love it. Both teams coming off a bye. Carolina has to win at some point and if they don’t win it comes down to a fg. Texans have rookie head coach and the Panthers have a veteran coach. They know how to handle the bye and Bryce Young finally proves why he was the first pick. It has to happen. The Texans are due for a terrible game.
Unbiased Stats:
Houston is 1-4 ATS in L5 against Carolina
Houston is 1-12 in L13 against opponents in the NFC
Carolina is 10-1 in L11 against an opponent in AFC South
Carolina is 8-3 ATS in L11 played in Week 8
Lock: Dolphins -3 / Chiefs -3 1u to win 0.9
Groundbreaking Analysis:
Divisional rivals. Dolphins own the Pats in Miami. That doesn’t change this week. The Chiefs own the Broncos at home and in Denver. That doesn’t change this week. The lines were a little too high to take them by the spread so I teased them down. Simple. They both win.
Unbiased Stats:
KC is 10-0 in L10 against Denver
KC is 8-0 in L8 on the road against Denver
Miami is 15-2 in L17 at home
Miami is 5-1 ATS in L6 at home against New England
Lock: JAX/PIT U41 1u to win 0.9
Groundbreaking Analysis:
Under. Under. Under. It is going to be a nice rainy day in Pittsburgh. Steelers come out slow and show up in the fourth quarter which means under. Steelers defense is great which means under. Jaguars are not used to shit weather which means under. It is the under. I got a great number. This goes in the 30’s by game time. Love it.
Unbiased Stats:
Under in 4 of Jacksonville’s L6 played in October
Under in 5 of Pittsburgh’s L6 against Jacksonville
Under in 11 of Pittsburgh’s L15 played in week 8
