Record: 36-28-3 (+4.6 units)
Theme for this week is mostly good teams at home. This is where the home stadium makes a difference. You are in the thick of it, you are playing conference rivals, and you get that extra spark at home. Nothing on the bigger games. I am too biased.
Lock: Rutgers -5 vs Michigan State 1u to win 0.9
Groundbreaking Analysis:
System play. I may as well be a Michigan State fan at this point. I watch and bet on them what feels like every week. They are shit. Tuck is gone and that doesn’t matter. They are not good. The entire roster will be focusing on transferring out and not on Rutgers. They won’t show up. Give me Rutgers who has been great ATS all season and win at home.
Unbiased Stats:
MSU is 1-7 in L8 on the road
MSU is 0-5-2 ATS in L7 against BIG 10 East opponents
Rutgers is 5-0-1 ATS in L6
Rutgers is 4-1 ATS in L5 at home
Lock: Indiana O5.5 1u to win 0.9
Groundbreaking Analysis:
I need two FG’s simple. Michigan has to play a perfect game for this to not hit. I am willing to take that risk. They have been playing almost flawlessly all season and now they let up. I don’t know if it will be a true let down spot but I do know they give up a TD+. They are on the road and that doesn’t matter just give me 6.
Unbiased Stats:
Indiana O5.5 in 9/L10
Indiana O5.5 in 10/L10 against Michigan
Michigan has allowed O5.5 in 9/L10
Lock: Utah -11.5 vs Cal 1u to win 0.9
Groundbreaking Analysis:
I still love Utah. Yea they fucked it against OSU but that was two weeks ago. OSU is also much better than Cal. This game is at home and Cam Rising could be playing. Even if he doesn’t the Utes are phenomenal at home and should win this game by 14+. They have had enough time to prepare for a blowout against a really shit Cal. Feed me the Utes at home for a bounce back game.
Unbiased Stats:
Cal is 1-7 in L8 on the road
Cal is 0-5 in L5 played in October
Utah is 17-0 in L17 at home
Utah is 15-3 in L18 against Pac 12 opponents
Lock: Tennessee -3 vs Texas A&M 1u to win 0.9u
Groundbreaking Analysis:
Texas A&M to no surprise royally fucked up against Bama. Now it is time for a letdown. Tennessee is coming off a bye, they are at home, and they win this game. They had that atrocious Florida loss but have since bounced back from it. They have enough talent to beat a beat up, depressed, and worn down A&M team. Tennessee wins this by a TD+. Simple.
Unbiased Stats:
Texas A&M is 0-7 in L7 on the road
Texas A&M is 0-5 in L5 played in October
Tennessee is 12-0 in their last 12 games at home
Tennessee is 13-5 ATS in L18
