Record: 64-45-1 (+16.5 units)
Recap:
Winner. We are fucking back. This one was important for many reasons. I needed this win for the battle to 20u and I needed this win for my own sanity. I saw this play last night at 148.5 and I fell in love with it then. I decided to wait thinking that it might go up since it opened at 146.5 and was already at 148.5. Of course that fucked me and I had to wait for it to get back to 146.5 since it dropped overnight. I usually never try and wait like that and if I had gotten fucked by it ending at 147 or 148 I probably wouldn’t be typing this right now. Thankfully it was easy in the last five minutes. It started easy and then the pace kept creeping up and I think the highest live line I saw was 148.5 and I was suicidal looking at that line. The last five minutes went perfect. Miss after miss and good sportsmanship to end the game. 133 and it was easy. Easy and this went fookin exactly as predicted. Notre Dame didn’t break 80 and North Dakota didn’t break 60. I mean I was spot on. Fuckin brilliant. I won a bet and I learned a valuable lesson about just taking the bet when I see it. I also loved seeing how I was on a sharp bet before the sharps were on it because the money was all over the under and thats why it went down overnight. What a win and now it’s time to start fookin stackin win after win.
Lock: New Mexico State/Dayton U141.5 1u to win 0.9u
Groundbreaking Analysis:
Sticking with college basketball. I know it looks lazy to go back to it again but it was by far the best bet on the board. I hated everything else. No good matchups and a lot of injuries for the NBA board. Nothing in Maction. So I am back to one of my favorites. I love this matchup. We have a slow Dayton team that is going to control the pace against a bad New Mexico State. New Mexico State has been destroying teams that are barely even basketball teams. They are about to throw up brick after brick against a tourney program. This is another spot with a team playing at too high of a pace compared to last year and now are due for regression against a much better team. Dayton has been doing what Dayton does and that’s play slow basketball where they win and control the game. NM State isn’t ready to play in this type of environment and against this level of competition and I don’t think they break 55. Dayton is going to win this game but I don’t see them scoring more than 80 with their pace of play. They also haven’t really played anyone outside of NW so I don’t think they go over the top and blow out this team. These two teams have been over performing from a scoring perspective and are due for regression. I love this under. I love this number too. I thought this line would be mid 130s so this is great for the under. Give me this under. Under. Under. Under. For Underia 🏴
Unbiased Stats:
Under in New Mexico State’s 4/L6 against teams in the A10
Under in Dayton’s 9/13 played on a Wednesday
Under 141.5 in Dayton’s 2/L3
