Record: 17-10-1 (+5.3 units)
Recap:
Pain. Couldn’t get a full week. It was sort of the right read just poor execution by me. Atlanta came out flat snd I thought they wouldn’t get out of it. So I guess I should have taken Seattle 1Q. 2nd and 3rd quarter killed it. Fuck. Two terrible quarters and too high of a pace. Also, Seattle forgetting to play defense half of the game didn’t help. I really wanted seven too. I wanted the full week but instead I sit here in misery. Back to the grind tomorrow and I need to put this behind me. I am real hungry for a win now. I will get back to this and get 7.Â
Lock: UAPB/Arkansas U58 1u to win 0.9u
Groundbreaking Analysis:
We have arrived. Thursday football. Not the typical TNF but still football. A pretty decent sized slate too. I searched and searched for a winner and I think I found one. A neutral field although it will still be a home crowd for Arkansas. Arkansas isn’t some high powered offense although obviously they are going to win. They just need to stay in the 40s. I think they do and they dominate on defense. Arkansas also isn’t a team that blows out and disrespects these small schools. Arkansas brought in a new OC in former coach Petrino so there should be some learning adjustments for the offense. They also have a new QB so everything is new on this offense and there should be some mix ups with it being the first game. Arkansas is also in a look ahead spot with them having Oklahoma State next week so this should affect their offensive productivity. I think Arkansas blows them out early and they avoid injuries by pulling the starters real early since injuries killed them last year. The money is also going to the under while the bets are on the over. I love this pick. I really do. This is a perfect 42-3 game. I want to get back on track.
Unbiased Stats:
Under in UAPB’s 4/L5
Arkansas U58 in 3/4 season openers
