Record: 38-27-1 (+9.8 units)
Recap:
Winner. Back. I fucking needed that. It was a pretty solid winner. Turnover after turnover. Incompetency by both teams to get in the end zone. I was a little worried that the delay might fuck me l but I don’t think it mattered. Both of these teams were going to make the same mistakes no matter the weather. I did have to avoid the last play turning into a lateral defensive TD. Other than that it was nice to get this win. I can’t stress enough how much I needed this after what happened this weekend. I am right there around 10 units again and I want to get back to double digits. Time for winner after fuckin winner.
Lock: Derek Carr U222.5 Pass+Rush Yards 1u to win 0.9u
Groundbreaking Analysis:
I couldn’t pick anything against my beloved Chiefs. I had to take a typical Derek Carr letdown game. He has been pretty solid to start the season but there is a trend that I like about this matchup. Carr in the outdoors. He is a dome QB now. He isn’t used to playing outside. His throws are going to be affected. It’s in the loudest stadium in the league. The Chiefs defense is going to get better against Carr. It has allowed QBs who are better than Carr to throw on them but they aren’t going to allow Carr to do that. This is still I would say a Top 3 defense in the league and it could be 1. I know Carr has been solid against KC but that was with the Raiders and in bullshit divisional games. That isn’t going to happen tonight. The Chiefs defense typically get better as the season progresses and that is going to show tonight. The way you beat KC too is on the ground by running the football. I don’t think the Saints win but I do think they give Kamara a lot chances to break off a long run. I just think this number is too high. I went with rushing yards too because I think that’s a free six yards. Give me back to back winners. Get me fucking rolling again. Please. Please. Get me on another run. No better way to keep it going betting against a shit QB. Under. Under. Under. For Underia 🚇🏴
Unbiased Stats:
Carr U222.5 in 3/L3 outdoors
Chiefs U222.5 for a QB in 2/L2
