Record: 115-107-3 (+2.9 units)
Recap:
Winner. MASSIVE WINNER. This a momentum win. Two in a row in an absolute sweat late. At this point I am used to getting fucked and having every bet be a sweat. This game was pacing under the number the entire game until the final five minutes. It became a sweat because Duke gave up the 20 point lead and the refs were calling fouls like they were calling an NBA game. I thought the refs were in on the over because it was some of the softest calls on Duke and it got UNC back in the game. They were the reason UNC got back in the game. It was fucking atrocious bullshit. I had the sweat of all sweats with five remaining. I went from needing Duke to keep the lead big enough in order to avoid being fouled to death late to then needing UNC to keep it a one possession game so we didn’t have a foul off situation to then trying to avoid overtime. I somehow got it and avoided overtime. I know the refs fucked me by keeping it close but then they saved me with the lane violation on UNC. If they don’t call that I get fucked and this shit goes to overtime. I would have been in a very dark place if this went to OT or even just lost in regulation. Taking this and it being a loser while also watching Houston put on a defensive clinic would have been death. This game deserved to go under. This is a momentum win. I got past the bullshit once again and fought for this under. I plan on never losing the rest of March.
Lock: Mount St. Mary’s/Iona U136.5 1u to win 0.9u
Groundbreaking Analysis:
We are back to betting in the trenches. This isn’t the biggest game but still a very important game with one team getting into the big dance. Mount St. Mary’s loves to play slow defensive basketball and they have to do that here. Iona isn’t the slowest of teams but Mount St. Mary’s is going to make them play slow. The nerves are going to get to these two teams which will effect their shooting. There is going to be a lot of bricks and we get an under. This conference final has not gone over this number in this decade and I don’t see how that changes tonight. Mount St. Mary’s has been keeping teams around sixty so far and Iona is going to feel them defensively. Iona is going to play defense too and they don’t really have to do much because Mount St. Mary’s isn’t some offensive juggernaut. I know this number is a little high that I am putting out but this is the number I got. I got it early and then as I was writing this it got bumped down a couple of points. I also don’t think this game will break 130 but I have a little more room to work with than most. Give me another conference weekend winner. Give me another under. Under. Under. Under. For Underia 🥪
Unbiased Stats:
U136.5 in MAAC Tournament Final in 4/L4
Under in Mount St. Mary’s/Iona 4/L6
Under in Mount St. Mary’s 5/L6
