Record: 129-116-3 (+5.5 units)
Recap:
Winner. I’m on one. I’m seeing the board. This wasn’t easy but if they were always easy then, everyone would do it. This one was a battle through and through. Giannis and Alvarado were late scratches, and I knew I had to avoid third string bullshit. For a while, I didn’t avoid it. We had the store-bought Reeves on the Pelicans shooting lights out and dropping a career high, as most reserves do the second I take their under. On the other side, the Bucks came out much quicker than I expected. The pace was trash early on, but I knew with these two teams, we’d get back in it. Second and third quarters were beautiful. We were golden to start the fourth. All I had to do was avoid a run of stupidity. Shockingly, the Bucks despite only having a couple of starters still couldn’t close this game out. It’s like they were trying to lose. And it was all because of Kuzma and the two Jr.’s. Three clowns who are too old to be doing the dumb shit they were doing. These guys don’t understand how to win a game with a lead. Instead of killing time and holding the ball late, these imbeciles were driving into traffic and losing it. They let the game get way closer than it ever needed to be. I thought I had somehow dodged the chaos with 30 seconds left and the Bucks trying to dribble it out. Nope. The Pelicans, who are literally trying to lose, stole the ball from another idiot on the Bucks, Ryan Rollins. Then Ryan Rollins, instead of passing out of a trap, shot the ball, giving the Pelicans another look at a three. And they hit it. Suddenly it’s 110-107 with five seconds left. This is the kind of bullshit I’m dealing with. Who the hell is Ryan Rollins? Absolute clown. I needed a missed free throw. If I didn’t get it, I knew the Pelicans were going to hit a meaningless garbage-time three and push me. And that would’ve felt like a loss. Gary Trent Jr. after all his earlier dumb shit came through and bricked one. Saved me. The Pelicans missed the final shot, which didn’t matter since he made one and missed one. But I knew, if he made both or missed both, that last shot from the Pelicans was going in no matter what. That’s gambling. When the bullshit starts, it snowballs. No complaints, though. This is a winner. We’ve got a little cushion now but nowhere near where I want to be. I need more. A lot more. This run feels good, but we need to turn it into a marathon.
Lock: Houston U70.5 1u to win 0.9u
Groundbreaking Analysis:
I know. I’m betraying a close ally. A team that’s been pretty solid for me all season. I’m sorry Houston but I have to do it. It’s the last game of the season, and I have to bet it. I needed to find a winner, and I found one. I could’ve gone with the under, but this bet makes more sense. Even if Houston wins, I don’t see them doing it by outscoring Florida. They’ll need a near identical performance to what they pulled off against Duke. That means forcing Florida into a long scoring drought and controlling the pace start to finish. They don’t need to focus on offense because they can’t win this game with offense. They are who they are, and I don’t see that changing tonight. Florida has the talent, size, and length to match up with Houston. We saw what happened in the Final Four: Florida slowed the game down in the second half, tightened up defensively, and took full control. They’re going to play that way for a full forty minutes tonight. I think Florida wins. The game could go over, but I see a much more likely path where Houston stays under 70 even in a Florida win where it goes over than one where Houston wins and the total goes over. That’s why I’m taking a team total. I’m too scared of Florida’s talent to touch the full game total. This is the play. If you asked Houston before the game, “You’re scoring 80 tonight do you take it?” I honestly think they’d say no. Because if they’re putting up 80, it means Florida kept the tempo high… and Houston lost. So Houston has to keep it low scoring. They’re not pulling the same magic again. This game reminds me of 2015. We’ll look back on this Final Four the same way. Wisconsin knocked off a loaded Kentucky squad with a late comeback, but then lost to the better team in the final. Houston is Wisconsin. Florida’s seen what Houston can do late and they’re going to step on their throat on defense for a full forty minutes. They are the better all around team. I love you, Houston. But you’re not breaking 70. You could still win with that number, like you did against Duke, but you’re not breaking it. Give me the under. Under. Under. Under. For Underia. 🏴
Unbiased Stats:
Houston U70.5 3/L3
Florida averages 68.2 points allowed this season
