Record: 20-18 (0 units)
Going to continue to shoot from the hip again this week since it worked last week. I do not love the board as much this week compared to last week. That may be why I picked a lot of favorites. I expect a big week for the favs.
Lock: Jaguars -3 vs Falcons 1u to win 0.9
Groundbreaking Analysis:
Have to bet this game when it is in London. This is the London Jaguars. They are 4-5 in London and this game will get them to .500. They haven’t had great teams in the past play in London but this is a pretty solid Jags team. They had their choke job last week and I expect them to bounce back this week. They only need to stop the Falcons run game to win this game. They will stop the run and they should be able to get a W in a London.
Unbiased Stats:
Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in L7
Jaguars have played in London 9 times
Falcons are 0-6 in L6 on the road
Falcons are 1-5 ATS in L6 in Week 4
Lock: Ja’Marr Chase Over 84.5 1u to win 0.9
Groundbreaking Analysis:
I really enjoy betting on these star WR’s. Chase was way more involved on MNF and they got their first W. They now know they need to get him the ball. He should get a lot of targets again this week. The Titans are one of the worst passing defenses. They allow a lot of yards and Chase should get to triple digits.
Unbiased Stats:
Titans are 30th in passing yards allowed this season
Have allowed 3/3 WR1 this season O84.5 yards
Chase O84.5 yards in 1/L1
Lock: Vikings -4.5 vs Panthers 1u to win 0.9
Groundbreaking Analysis:
This is it for the Vikings. They have to win this game to save their season. They choked last week when the Chargers were trying to give them the game. They have to win this game. If they don’t they may look to rebuild and trade away Cousins. They will throw everything they got in this game and should come away with the win.
Unbiased Stats:
Vikings are 4-1 in L5 games against the Panthers
Vikings are 6-1 in L7 played in October
Panthers are 3-8 ATS in L11 played in October
Panthers are 5-11 in L16 at home
Lock: Bills -3 vs Dolphins 1u to win 0.9
Groundbreaking Analysis:
Have to bet against the team that just put up 70. It is time for their down week. The Bills dominate them at home. They will do that again this week. Love the Bills here. Simple as that.
Unbiased Stats:
Bills are 13-2 in L15 at home
Bills are 10-2 in L12
Dolphins are 0-7 in L7 when playing on the road against the Bills
Dolphins are 1-9 in L10 against the Bills
Lock: Chargers -4.5 vs Raiders 1u to win 0.9
Groundbreaking Analysis:
Raiders are starting their free fall. Chandler Jones is going crazy on Twitter, Marquette is saying some wild stories about Davis, and Davante wants out. Time for them to get another loss and closer to that coveted 1st pick. Chargers tried to give away last game but they won’t do that this week. They have found a groove on offense and should be able to put up enough points this week to cover this game.
Unbiased Stats:
Chargers are 4-1 ATS in L5 played in Week 4
Chargers are 8-4 in L12 when playing as the favorite
Raiders are 1-5 in L6
Raiders are 6-12 in L18 played in October
