Record: 138-132-6 (-14.7 units)
Recap:
Fuck. Not a loss but felt like one. It was right there. I knew something was going to go wrong when they got that late one in the first. Then the two goals in the second did not make me feel great. I thought getting to ten minutes left at 2-1 I would win it. They then squeaked in that 4th goal and I was scared for my life. They fucking teased me keeping it at 4 goals with two minutes left. Then the Caps decided to pull the fucking goalie I thought wayyyyy to early. Fine one empty net goal. Nope they then decided to keep pushing down three with two minutes left. They had the man advantage and got that fucking goal to push. Fuck. I thought I really fucking had it. Terrible, terrible push. The only thing keeping me positive is that the one NRFI I was leaning toward did not hit. So I guess that’s somewhat of a win. Not really. Time to reuse that unit and win.
Lock:Â Reds/White Sox NRFI 1u to win 0.9u
Groundbreaking Analysis:
Back to baseball. This is the best bet on the board and it is not juiced. The Reds are average at best and don’t score in the first inning. The White Sox are shit and don’t score in the first inning at home. Two decent first inning pitchers. Flexen has been solid this year not allowing a run in the first and has been solid in his career in the first inning. Abbott was solid last season in the first inning but hasn’t been great this season. However, when you dive deeper into his two first innings it wasn’t his fault he didn’t shut them out. In those two innings there was an error that caused a run and then a terrible umpire not giving him clear strikes. So I get it looks scary with how he has started the season in first inning but he should be able to regain form against the White Sox tonight. Overall I love it. All I need is a nice six outs. That’s it. Give me this NRFI. Let’s stay hot for Underia.
Unbiased Stats:
Abbott shutout the first inning 13/21 last season
Reds have 0 first inning runs away from home this season
Flexen only allowed 14 runs in 38 1st innings last two seasons
White Sox average 0.6 less runs in the first inning at home
